Abstract #W287

# W287
Estimated feed and water requirements to meet global 2050 demand for animal proteins.
J. R. Knapp*1, R. A. Cady2, 1Fox Hollow Consulting LLC, Columbus, OH, 2Elanco Animal Health, Greenfield, IN.

FAO has published predictions for 2050 global milk and meat consumption. As part of the larger Food Forward Sustainability Project, the objective of this study was to estimate the quantities of feed and water required to produce the FAO forecasted quantities of animal products under 2 scenarios and independent of advances in crop production. In the first scenario, innovation continues, and in the second, development and application of technologies are limited, freezing productivity at 2010 levels. Models capturing animal population dynamics were formulated with biological constraints and used to predict the resources needed for egg, dairy, and meat production from chickens, swine, cattle, and water buffalo. Global consumption of chicken meat, pork, and beef is expected to increase 134, 51, 43%, respectively, based on increases in population and per capita consumption. For swine and beef, options exist with current technology and management that if applied more broadly could increase production efficiency and maintain or reduce resource utilization by these species' production systems relative to 2010 levels. The impact of increased dairy consumption would increase feed and water utilization by 10% with continued innovation. In swine, beef, and dairy, it is biologically possible to increase total production while decreasing animal numbers. In contrast, production of chicken meat cannot be increased to meet the very large projected demand without significant increases in both animal numbers and carcass size. Likewise, increasing egg production to meet future demands will require modest increases in eggs per hen and number of hens. Innovation and broader adoption of existing technology have strong potential to mitigate the impacts of increased animal production on feed and water utilization while meeting future demands for animal products, thus minimizing the expansion of animal numbers as has happened historically. Table 1.
20102050 Continued Innovation2050 Frozen Productivity
Human population (billion)6.99.49.4
Animal product consumption(kg×yr−1×person−1)148.4170.7170.7
Total animal product consumption (billion MT)1.021.601.60
Feed (as is, billion MT)4.65.07.0
Water (trillion L)15.817.324.9

Key Words: sustainability, food supply, animal protein