Abstract #211

# 211
Meeting 2050 global milk demand while freezing the environmental footprint of dairy production.
Roger A. Cady1, Howard B. Green*1, 1Elanco, Greenfield, IN.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations projects that the global milk demand in 2050 will exceed 1 billion metric tonnes (MT), an increase of nearly 60% compared with 2010 production levels. The increase in milk solids demand will be 50 million MT, more than any other animal-sourced food except poultry products. The primary sources of human consumed dairy products are cattle and water buffalo (96%). Combined global milk production from these 2 species more than doubled from 1961 to 2010 (331.5 million MT to 692.0). However, milk production has not kept pace with human population growth, resulting in 6% less bovine milk produced per capita than in 1961. Milk production must grow more in the next 35 years than it has in the past 50. Furthermore, growth must occur without increasing the environmental footprint of milk production. Between 1961 and 2010, milk supply from dairy cattle increased primarily due to increased cows (54%). Since 2007, 82% of supply increase is due to a larger cattle population. That contrasts to an average annual yield increase of only 9.7 kg/cow/yr of cattle milk since 1961. Every additional cow to the population adds between 9 and 13 MT of CO2e (accounts for additional replacement heifers and bulls) to the atmosphere annually. To meet 2050 demand and freeze the environmental impact of milk production requires increasing yield by at least 45 kg/cow/yr annually between now and 2050. This compares to sustained annual increases in developed countries of 130 kg/cow/yr and over 200 kg/cow/yr in some countries with developing dairy industries. In regions where milk production increases are limited, increased trade will be required to source milk from more resilient production regions.

Key Words: dairy, environment, sustainability

Speaker Bio
Howard Green was born and raised on a small dairy farm in eastern Iowa. He graduated from Iowa State University with B.S. in Animal Science and master degree in animal nutrition where his research focused on vitamin D metabolism of cows fed a low calcium diet. Mr. Green joined Elanco Animal Health as research manager of a new dairy research unit in Greenfield In. conducting research in rumen modifiers and physiology of dairy cows to enhance milk production and efficiency of production.  Mr. Green moved to Minnesota to provide technical support of Elanco products and three years later moved back to Greenfield as manager of regulatory affairs to lead a team in conducting the field trials and approval of Rumensin for use in lactating and dry dairy cows. Following the regulatory approval, Mr. Green provided technical support for introduction of Rumensin to the dairy industry and in 2006 became leader of the Elanco Dairy technical team supporting Rumensin and Posilac in the United States. Mr. Green is currently director of innovation and Elanco Knowledge Solutions (data analytics) for the US Dairy Business at Elanco.

Outside of work, Howard is passionate about church, family, community and soccer. He serves on the parish council and leader of the stewardship committee at St. Michael’s church in Greenfield.  He is emeritus board member of the Hancock Community Foundation after serving 9 years on the board.  Howard recently received the Jay Fredrich Good of Soccer Award from the state soccer association and has a soccer field named after him in Greenfield. He continues to serve on the soccer board and mentors youth referees for the club.  Howard volunteers at the Hancock County food pantry and is currently a team member of a group of Elanco employees working with Heifer International on an East Africa Dairy Development project to improve milk production and sustainability of dairy producers in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganada. Howard and his wife, Linnea have four boys; Matthew, Rodney, Luke and Adam and two grandchildren in which they enjoy spending time with and continuing to do God’s work.