Abstract #418

# 418
Climate-related risk management in agriculture: Its importance for coping with current and future climate changes in the southeastern United States.
B. V. Ortiz*1, C. Fraisse2, D. Dourte2, W. Bartels2, D. Zierden3, P. Knox4, 1Auburn University, Auburn, AL, 2University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 3Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Tallahassee, FL, 4University of Georgia, Athens, GA.

Agricultural food and feed production is extremely important to the southeastern (SE) United States, because it not only provides quality food and feed for residents but also contributes to the region’s economy. However, the stability and sustainability of the SE agriculture is affected by the interannual and seasonal variability of the climate, and could be at much higher risk under the projected future climate. Currently, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), especially El Niño and La Niña phases, makes important contributions to the year-to-year variations in conditions. ENSO has the strongest influence in the SE climate during the winter and spring months. During those months El Niño phase brings wet and cold conditions and La Niña phase results on dry and warm conditions. Several research studies have shown the relationship of ENSO phases and changes in row crops and forages yield, pest, and diseases; therefore the importance of the use of the ENSO forecast as a risk management strategy. The impact of weather and climate conditions on livestock farming (e.g., milk yield and composition, beef productivity) and, especially extreme events have been also documented. The current US National Climate Assessment released in 2014 report data of the effect of future climate scenarios on rainfall, ambient temperature, extreme events, among other variables. By 2050 in the SE, compared with the period 1971–2000, SE summer rainfall is expected to decline up to 20%, the number of days per year with maximum temperature above 95°F, heat waves, is expected to be in the range of 25 to 35 d, summer ambient temperature could increase in the range of 4°F to 8°F. Projections of future precipitation patterns are less certain than projections for temperature increases; however, tropical storms are projected to be to be fewer in number globally, but stronger in force, and extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in number. Several climate research, education, and extension regional projects funded USDA-NIFA are currently implemented to help stakeholders with adoption of new or adaptation of current management strategies to increase resilience and reduce potential impacts. The Southeast Climate Extension project (http://www.agroclimate.org/seclimate/), a multi-state and multi-institution project, is using a participatory approach toward engaging producers, extension specialists and agents, and farmers associations on the identification, development and evaluation of climate adaptation strategies. Hand-on workshops on the use of and awareness of web-based climate decision support tools hosted in www.Agroclimate.org are also very popular among the SE clientele. Awareness of the future climate projections and potential adaptation strategies should be considered into the risk management package.

Key Words: adaptive capacity, climate variability, climate change

Speaker Bio
Dr. Brenda Ortiz is an Associate Professor at Auburn University.  She has an extension and research appointment in the areas of Grain Crops and Precision Agriculture. Her Ph.D. is in Biological and Agricultural Engineering from The University of Georgia. Her main research and extension interests include the use of remote sensing technologies for variable rate application of nitrogen, the evaluation of agronomic and economic benefits of adopting GPS Autoguidance systems for peanut production in the Southeast USA,  evaluation and identification of adaptation strategies to reduce climate-related risk in agriculture – specially corn and wheat production in the Southeast USA,  the use of field studies and crop growth modeling to evaluate different management strategies for improving grain production, evaluation of irrigation scheduling strategies for corn production, and the assessment of site-specific risk for aflatoxin contamination  in corn as well as the evaluation of different management practices to reduce aflatoxin risk.